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Heat vs. Spurs Pick NBA – March 6th 2014

Author: Brandon Barron


5:20 PM March 6, 2014

 

The Thursday NBA slate consists of three games, with the marquee game being a rematch of the NBA Finals from last year.  The Heat and Spurs are set to tip off at 8pm EST in San Antonio. The second game of the TNT doubleheader is an all LA affair.  The Los Angeles Clippers and the Los Angeles Lakers are scheduled to tip at 10:30pm EST, with the Lakers wearing the home jerseys and the Clippers set to be the “away team”.  Sandwiched in between these two games is a tilt out west with the Oklahoma City Thunder visiting the Phoenix Suns at 9pm EST.

 

Today’s Free Pick:        

Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs -2 (Total 208.5) *Update Spurs Now -3.5 with 206.5 total*

Miami Heat San Antonio Spurs
Record 43-15 (19-11 Away) 44-16 (21-8 Home)
ATS Record 27-29-2 (16-13-1 Away) 29-31 (11-18 Home)
Point Differential (per game) +6.2 (+4.2 Road) +6.2 (+6.5 Home)
Last 10 W/L 8-2 8-2

 

Line Moves:

At 3:12pm on 3/05 Bookmaker opened the San Antonio Spurs at -2.5 with a total of 207. As you can see the early betting action has shaped the line a bit, with action coming in on the Heat and the over.  BetOnline opened the Spurs at -3 at 12:27pm on 3/05. Line moves today 3/6 have pushed the lines back in the opposite direction. The line is now Spurs -3.5 with a total of 206.5.

 

Injuries:

News surfaced that LeBron James had re-broken his nose against the Rockets on Tuesday. This was later updated that James DID NOT re-break his nose. Greg Oden will be available to play against the Spurs, according to the Miami Herald. The Spurs are not listing any injuries at this time.

 

Head To Head:

The teams met on January 26th in Miami. The Heat won 113-101 and covered the 4 point spread. The game went over the total of 205. In the 2013 NBA Finals the Spurs went 4-3 against the spread and the over was 4-3.

 

Analysis:

The Spurs overall record at home (21-8) is similar to their road record (23-8). Their point differential is also similar with a +6.5 at home versus a +6 on the road. Against the spread is a completely different story. They are 11-18 at home ATS versus 18-13 on the road. Their totals average 202 on the road and 202.7 at home. They have been poor at home ATS, and the combined game totals have been slightly higher (though their pace at home has been 94.3 at home versus 94.9 on the road).

The Heat have been better on the road ATS (16-13-1) than at home (11-16-1). This is despite a rather large disparity in point differential (+4.2 road and +8.4 home).  The totals in Miami Heat road games have been 200.4 with a pace of 91.7 (versus 206 and 92.7 at home). The Heat play at a slower pace on the road, and seem to be more consistent.

 

Picks:

Miami Heat +2 and Under 208.5

**Update Line is Now Heat +3.5 and Under 206.5** Still Play Both

The numbers show me that the Heat are a good play on the road, and that Spurs are a poor play at home. The Heat play at a slower pace on the road.  The Spurs play at a slower pace at home(despite the point totals being slightly higher).  I think the under is the stronger play of the two. I believe that the total has been bet up due to the previous game going over, and because the over went 4-3 in the Finals last year.

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